Barometric Pressure and Migraines: What the Science Actually Says

If you've ever felt a migraine coming on before a storm, you're not imagining things. But the relationship between barometric pressure and migraines is more complicated than "low pressure equals headache." Here's what decades of research actually tells us, including the specific pressure thresholds that matter and why your inner ear might be the culprit.

The numbers: how many people are actually affected?

Ask migraineurs about weather triggers and you'll get a lot of raised hands. According to the American Migraine Foundation, over a third of people with migraine report that weather patterns trigger their headaches at least some of the time. Other surveys put the number even higher, with up to 50% of patients identifying as weather-sensitive.

But here's where it gets interesting. A study published in the Journal of Headache and Pain found that while 50.6% of patients believed they were weather-sensitive, there was no significant difference in actual weather sensitivity between those who believed it and those who didn't.

What does that mean? It suggests two things: some people underestimate their weather sensitivity, and some overestimate it. The only way to know for sure is to track your attacks against actual weather data, not just your perception of the weather.

When researchers look at the hard data, weather's effect on migraine attacks comes out to around 20% of episodes. That's not nothing, but it's also not the majority. A 2014 study found that only about 13% of participants could be clearly identified as weather-sensitive based on their migraine data.

The takeaway: weather sensitivity is real, but it affects a subgroup of migraineurs, not everyone. If you're in that subgroup, understanding the mechanics can help you prepare.

The magic numbers: what pressure levels actually trigger attacks?

This is where research gets specific and useful. A Japanese study published in Internal Medicine examined exactly which barometric pressure levels were associated with migraine onset. They found that migraines occurred most frequently when atmospheric pressure dropped to between 1003 and 1007 hectopascals (hPa).

For context, standard atmospheric pressure is 1013 hPa. So we're talking about a drop of 6 to 10 hPa below normal. That's the range where attacks cluster.

A separate study of 28 migraine patients found that a drop greater than 5 hPa was associated with headaches in half the participants.

The direction of change matters too. The same Japanese study found that migraine frequency increased when barometric pressure dropped by more than 5 hPa from one day to the next. On the flip side, when pressure rose by more than 5 hPa over two days, migraine frequency decreased.

This is why checking "today's pressure" isn't as useful as knowing whether pressure is rising or falling. It's the change, not the absolute number, that seems to matter most.

Your inner ear might be the barometer

One of the most fascinating recent discoveries involves how your body actually detects barometric pressure changes. A 2025 study published in Scientific Reports found that the inner ear functions as a biological barometer.

Researchers exposed mice to pressure drops within the range of natural weather variations (around 20 hPa below normal). They found that sensory neurons in the vestibular ganglion, particularly those connected to the saccule and posterior semicircular canal, showed significantly increased activity.

Why does this matter for migraines? About 40% of migraine patients experience some form of vestibular symptoms, including dizziness and balance problems, during their attacks. The connection between the vestibular system and migraine has been recognized clinically for years, but this research suggests a potential mechanism.

The theory goes like this: when barometric pressure changes, it creates a pressure difference between the perilymph and endolymph in your inner ear. This activates neurons in the superior vestibular nucleus. These neurons connect to the trigeminal nerve, which is the primary pain pathway involved in migraine. Excite the vestibular nerve, and you may excite the trigeminal nerve, triggering the cascade that leads to migraine.

This also explains why people with Meniere's disease or vestibular migraines tend to be particularly sensitive to weather changes. When atmospheric pressure drops, it can lead to excess fluid buildup in the inner ear, making symptoms worse.

The sinus connection (and why it's only part of the story)

You've probably heard that barometric pressure affects your sinuses. This is true, but it's not the whole picture.

According to Cleveland Clinic, your sinuses are air-filled pockets that normally exist at equilibrium with atmospheric pressure. When external pressure drops, it creates a temporary mismatch. Your sinuses need time to equalize, and that process can cause discomfort.

But sinus pressure alone doesn't explain migraine. A study comparing migraine patients to tension headache patients found that 72.7% of migraine with aura patients and 75% of migraine without aura patients developed headaches when atmospheric pressure decreased. Only 21.4% of tension-type headache patients did.

If it were purely a sinus issue, you'd expect similar rates across headache types. The difference suggests that migraine brains are responding to something beyond simple sinus pressure. This brings us back to the neurovascular theory: barometric changes may affect blood vessel dilation, neurotransmitter levels (particularly serotonin), and the trigeminal pain pathway in ways that specifically trigger migraine in susceptible people.

Climate change is making this worse

If you feel like weather-triggered migraines are becoming more frequent, the data supports you.

Research presented at the 2024 American Headache Society Annual Scientific Meeting found that for every 10°F increase in outdoor temperature, there was a 6% increase in headache occurrence that day (based on diaries from 660 migraine patients).

A systematic review published in 2024 found that while migraines in the U.S. are about as common as they were three decades ago, the severity and level of impairment from attacks nearly doubled between 2005 and 2018.

Vincent Martin, professor of medicine at the University of Cincinnati and president of the National Headache Foundation, puts it this way: "With more low pressure systems and turbulent weather rolling in, the fluctuating weather patterns that are occurring with climate change can trigger more frequent and severe attacks of migraine."

A 2025 study in the Journal of Neurology (meta-analysis of 31 studies) confirmed that both temperature changes (OR = 1.15) and ambient pressure changes (OR = 1.07) were significantly associated with migraine attacks. Interestingly, humidity alone did not show a significant association.

Researchers from University College London noted that worsening climate conditions are likely to cause two effects: more frequent attacks in people who already have migraine, and an overall increase in migraine prevalence in the population.

What you can actually do about it

You can't control the weather. But you can reduce your vulnerability when conditions shift. Here's what the research and experts recommend:

Track your attacks against actual weather data

This is the most important step. Don't rely on memory or general impressions. Log your migraines with timestamps, then compare against recorded barometric pressure for those days. After 2-3 months, you'll have data showing whether you're actually weather-sensitive, and if so, to which direction of pressure change.

Apps that automatically log weather conditions when you record an attack make this much easier than trying to look up historical data manually.

Watch for pressure drops, not just storms

By the time rain starts falling, the pressure change has already happened. If you're sensitive, you want to know when pressure is dropping, not when it hits bottom. A drop of 5+ hPa from yesterday to today is the warning sign.

Maintain your other defenses

The American Migraine Foundation emphasizes that the migraine brain loves consistency. When barometric pressure is working against you, make sure your other triggers aren't stacking up. That means:

• Sleep: Don't let a pressure drop catch you sleep-deprived. Both too little and too much sleep can lower your threshold.
• Hydration: Cleveland Clinic specifically recommends staying well-hydrated when pressure drops, as fluid shifts in blood vessels can contribute to headaches.
• Stress: Easier said than done, but stress hormones can compound weather triggers. If you know a storm is coming, that's not the day to take on extra pressure at work.

Consider preemptive treatment

If you have a clear pattern of weather-triggered migraines, talk to your doctor about taking medication before the attack fully develops. Some patients take an NSAID like ibuprofen or a prescribed triptan when they see pressure dropping, rather than waiting for pain to start.

For people with frequent weather-triggered attacks, preventive medications (taken daily regardless of weather) may be worth discussing. Mayo Clinic notes that calcium channel blockers are sometimes used for migraines triggered by barometric pressure and high humidity.

Don't ignore the vestibular connection

If you get dizzy or experience balance issues during your migraines, you may have a stronger vestibular component. This is worth mentioning to your doctor, as vestibular migraines sometimes respond to different treatments than typical migraines.

The limits of migraine weather forecasting

A growing number of apps and websites offer "migraine forecasts" that claim to predict your headache risk based on upcoming weather. Should you use them?

Here's the honest answer: no research supports their effectiveness. There's no data on their reliability, accuracy, or how often they actually help people prevent attacks.

That said, they might have value as monitoring tools. If you use a migraine forecast alongside your own symptom diary, you can start to see whether the forecast aligns with your personal patterns. Generic forecasts won't account for your individual threshold, but they can tell you when conditions are changing.

The more useful approach is building your own forecast based on your own data. After tracking your attacks against weather for a few months, you'll know whether a 5 hPa drop is meaningful for you, or whether you need to see 8+ hPa before you're affected. That personal threshold is more valuable than any generic prediction.

The bottom line

Barometric pressure can trigger migraines, but only in a subset of people, and usually as one factor among several. The research points to pressure drops of 5-10 hPa as the most likely trigger range. Your inner ear appears to function as the body's pressure sensor, potentially activating the trigeminal pain pathway through vestibular connections.

Climate change is increasing weather volatility, which may explain why some people feel their weather-triggered migraines are getting worse or more frequent.

The practical response isn't to obsess over every weather forecast. It's to track your own attacks, identify whether you're truly weather-sensitive, and if so, maintain your defenses (sleep, hydration, stress management) during high-risk periods. For some people, preemptive medication is worth discussing with a doctor.

Weather is one variable you can't control. But knowing how your body responds to it puts you in a better position to prepare.